Crashing the Party? Elites, Outsiders, and Elections∗

We study an elections model in which political parties are internally divided between an “elite” and a “base” whose preferences are imperfectly aligned. Elites are better informed about the quality of potential nominees, and their endorsements can identify and promote high quality candidates. However, elites may also choose to restrict their endorsements to candidates who adopt their preferred policies. We introduce a threat of entry from outsider candidates, who have the prominence and resources to bypass party elites. We consider when voters will turn to an outsider candidate, and identify the conditions under which an outsider challenge will come in the primary as opposed to as a third-party candidacy. We further explore when this threat disciplines elite endorsements and the conditions under which outsider challenges are most likely to succeed. ∗We are extremely grateful to Scott Ashworth, Dan Bernhardt, Benjamin Brooks, Ethan Bueno de Mesquita, Wioletta Dziuda, Stefan Krasa, Darl Lewis, James Robinson, Konstantin Sonin and seminar audiences at the University of Chicago, University of Illinois, and the Midwest Political Science Association meetings for helpful comments and suggestions. †Harris School of Public Policy, University of Chicago, Email: [email protected] ‡Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh, Email: [email protected]